It was suggested to me recently that the well-known quote of “There are only two certainties in life: death and taxes” seems somewhat outdated, as surely change should be added to that list? I agreed, and began to wonder what changes might be on the horizon – the dark art of futurology.
I found a 2008 article in The Daily Telegraph, which drew upon on the skills of scientists and others to forecast the future up to 2050. It struck me how accurate many of its predictions were, from the demise of ‘normal’ weather and personal privacy, to dream machines and hotels just for sleeping. Looking at its future suggestions, I realised how fundraising will change fundamentally during the rest of my working life (not the next twenty years, as I’d hoped, as I’ve also learned that the idea of retirement will begin to disappear from 2020).
So, imagine a world where there are no coins (forecast to be 2035) or bank notes (2040): will we be geared up to accept one-off digital donations in venues, and will all our customers be happy to donate digitally? Inheritance Tax (IHT) will be gone by 2030, which some might say is an unfair tax anyway, taxing income for a second time. No matter your personal view of it, legacies are a major source of income for charities, and without the incentive of charitable bequests being removed from estates before the calculation of IHT, I suspect we’ll see fewer donations to charity.
Indeed, the Middle Class – that bastion of support for arts organisations – will have disappeared by 2035, and by 2050 it’s thought that national borders and trade alliances such as the EU will have disappeared, as people consider themselves citizens of the world and have less of a sense of belonging to a specific area. Given so much fundraising is based on emotional pull, often linked to formative years and experiences, where does all this leave us?
To be honest, if I knew precisely, I’d be bottling that knowledge and selling it to everyone (assuming there are bottles in the future), but I think we can all take steps to future-proof ourselves as much as we’re able. But where to start? Well, I rather like PESTLE analysis, as it provides a useful framework for examining areas that could influence our futures.
So here are a few thoughts
- Political
Given it seems possible we’ll have a right-leaning Government for the next parliamentary term as well as the remainder of this, what ideology should we be looking to, to predict how state support (both moral and financial) will change? - Economic
Given austerity seems to be with us for the foreseeable (anyone who feels otherwise only needs to look at local authority funding to see things we once regarded as core services being cut) what will the new normal look like? How can we create new business models for the arts, and how will we fund them? - Societal
Given all the controversy, accurate or otherwise, surrounding charities and their practices during 2015, how will society regard charitable status in the future? This is a particularly complex question, as more and more that was once public sector will be taken on by charities. - Technology
Given the findings of the recent Digital R&D Fund for the Arts survey said that lack of senior commitment to digital work was a major barrier to change, what are the implications for fundraising in the 21st century as we strive to make giving as easy as possible? We need to look at gamification and experiential fundraising in same ways that companies like Punchdrunk and You Me Bum Bum Train have addressed changes in theatregoers’ expectations. - Legal
Given concerns around privacy and data collection, how can we sort the challenges of data gathering and protection in a way that suits both marketing and development concerns? And please can we ensure that the new Fundraising Regulator understands that the arts and cultural sector (largely) uses data in very ethical ways, and that the Fundraising Preference Service proposed in the Etherington Review could have massively detrimental but unintended impacts? - Environmental
Given the Paris Climate Change accord, should we consider the environmental impact of our fundraising, and how we build relationships to solicit gifts? Will touring our art – so vital to open up new markets and start new relationships with supporters – be feasible in the future?
And that’s only the start. Run a PESTLE analysis for your organisation and see what emerges. It may be shocking, but hopefully also inspiring.
I’ll end with another often-quoted proverb, which seems particularly prescient to fundraisers dealing with change: “The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now”. Happy planting.
